Qualifying is always crucial in NASCAR, but it has become more so at Circuit of the Americas and the rest of the road courses. Drivers just haven't won from the middle of the pack and further back.
According to NASCAR's national series and notes, 15 of the 17 road course winners in the Gen 7 era have started inside of the top eight. This is particularly true at Circuit of the Americas.
The last two races at the Texas road course have featured drivers starting from the front row (William Byron and Tyler Reddick). Chase Elliott started eighth in 2021 before winning the inaugural Cup race at COTA. Ross Chastain is the lone exception as he started 16th in 2022.
Byron has become particularly good at qualifying at Circuit of the Americas. He started from the pole in both 2023 and '24. He finished fifth in '23 and won last season.
Qualifying will continue to play an important role, but Byron and the other COTA winners will have some other factors to contend with this weekend. The biggest will be the shorter layout that eliminates roughly 1-mile of the road course.
The other factor will be the tire compound used. According to Goodyear, all four tires will be a new tire code that should deliver more fall-off throughout a run. Drivers who manage their tires better earlier should be able to gain an advantage if the race runs with fewer cautions.
"We don't know what the tire fall is going to be yet. We don't know how far back you can pit," Carson Hocevar told AltDriver on Tuesday while discussing how the new layout will affect late-stage strategy.
"I mean, it used to be the 25th-place guy could pit and not have to worry about it because the leader had to come around three miles before he laps you. Now if you're maybe 20 seconds behind the leader -- which could be 15th -- 15 seconds behind the leader you might not be able to pit."