The stage is set for the NASCAR weekend at Kansas Speedway, featuring drivers battling for the all-important win. According to BetMGM, Kyle Larson is the heavy favorite as he pursues yet another Kansas win.
The oddsmaker lists the 2021 Cup Series champion at +375 entering the weekend. This puts him far ahead of Ryan Blaney in second (+650) and Tyler Reddick in third (+700). William Byron (+800) and Denny Hamlin (+800) round out the top five.
BetMGM has multiple reasons for listing Larson as the heavy favorite. One is his average finish at the intermediate track (13.0). Another is the fact that he has seven top-five finishes and nine top-10s in the last 14 trips to Kansas.
This stretch of success also includes two trips to victory lane (2021, 2024). Larson is the only repeat winner in the last nine races at Kansas Speedway, a track known for a diverse group of winners.
Kansas is not the only intermediate track where Larson has achieved success. This season alone, he has a top-10 finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, a win at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and a fourth-place finish at Texas Motor Speedway.
Larson's average finish of 4.67 on 1.5-mile tracks this season is five spots better than teammate William Byron (9.67) in second place.
These stats explain why Larson is the heavy favorite entering the weekend, but does this mean he will easily win? The simple answer is no. The field simply features too many other drivers capable of winning at the track.
Nine drivers enter the weekend with at least one win at Kansas Speedway. Hamlin leads the way with four wins, while Joey Logano (+2,000) has three wins. Kyle Busch (+3,000), Brad Keselowski (+5,000), and Larson all have two wins.
The one-time Kansas winners include Ross Chastain (+1,800), Bubba Wallace (+1,800), Chase Elliott (+2,200), and Reddick.
Hamlin, in particular, could be the biggest challenger for Larson this weekend. After all, he beat the Hendrick Motorsports driver with a last-lap move at Kansas in 2023.
Hamlin's average finish at the 1.5-mile track is 12.2 over 33 career starts. He has finished no worse than eighth in the last seven races at Kansas and no worse than 15th in the last 11 races. This stretch includes three of his wins.