Many things are certain in NASCAR, such as Hendrick Motorsports winning at least one race each season. This weekend in Chicago, the only certainty is the uncertainty surrounding the race winner.
Let us explain.
If you look at the last five races featuring left and right turns, you will quickly notice that five different drivers have celebrated in victory lane. This includes two races this season and the final three road courses last season.
Shane van Gisbergen is the most recent winner. He captured the inaugural Cup Series race in Mexico City. Christopher Bell is the only other road course winner this season. He captured the race at Circuit of the Americas in March.
Kyle Larson won at the Charlotte Roval in what was the final road course race last season. Four weeks prior, Chris Buescher won the playoff race at Watkins Glen International. Alex Bowman won last season's race on the streets of Chicago. Larson, the only repeat road course winner in the last two seasons, captured the race at Sonoma Raceway.
You sure know how to celebrate a win, @Alex_Bowman. 🥃 pic.twitter.com/B1G9JAFGEV
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 2, 2025
Diving deeper reveals that five of the last 11 road course races featured drivers getting their first win in a race featuring left and right turns. This list includes Buescher (Watkins Glen), Bowman (Chicago), William Byron (Watkins Glen), Michael McDowell (Indianapolis), and Shane van Gisbergen (Chicago).
This varied list of road -- and street -- course winners only creates uncertainty heading to Chicago. Will a previous winner in the Windy City get another trip to victory lane? Will a driver with a secure spot in the playoffs, such as Larson, win for the first time on the street course?
The names on the entry list only create further uncertainty considering the respective histories. The drivers mentioned above will all be threats to win based on past road course success.
But there are other drivers such as Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, AJ Allmendinger, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, and Daniel Suarez who have all won road course races in their careers.
The entry list also includes reigning Supercars champion Will Brown, who makes his second career Cup start. He could follow former competitor van Gisbergen and get his first NASCAR win in Chicago.
"The A.J. Allmendinger's or the Shane van Gisbergen's, those guys are really good, and recognized for their road course experience, although, last year Alex Bowman won the race and he does not come from a road course racing background," Busch said.
"So, it's anyone and everyone in the field that can go out there and get it done on at the road course races."