The NASCAR Cup Series returns to action this weekend at Richmond Raceway, one of four remaining races before the start of the playoffs. According to odds from BetMGM, Toyota drivers are in a prime position to lock up a win.
The BetMGM odds have Denny Hamlin at +500 to win Sunday evening's race at Richmond Raceway. He is in a tie with Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex Jr. and Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson in a Chevrolet. JGR driver Christopher Bell is just behind at +550.
Team Penske's Ryan Blaney has the fifth-best odds to win at Richmond, a track where he has three top-10 finishes in 16 career Cup starts. He enters the weekend at +900.
RFK Racing's Chris Buescher, who won last season's summer race at Richmond, has the 12th-best odds to win. He enters the weekend at +1,800.
Having Hamlin, Truex, and Larson atop the list is no surprise considering their recent successes at the Action Track. Hamlin won this season's spring race at Richmond after taking the lead in overtime. Truex finished fourth in this race after leading 228 laps. Larson finished third after leading 144 laps.
Hamlin's win was his fifth at Richmond. This finish also marked the fifth time he had finished second or better in the last seven Cup races at the short track.
Larson, for comparison, has two wins at Richmond. He won last season's spring race at the short track, as well as the 2017 summer race. Larson's average finish at the track is 10.8 in 19 races.
Truex has had similar success at Richmond in his Cup Series career. He has posted top-10 finishes in 50% of his 36 starts, and he has three trips to victory lane since the 2019 season. While Truex continues to seek his first Next Gen win at the short track, he has finished 11th or better in all five races since moving to the new Toyota Camry.
Past success will potentially play a role in the outcome of Sunday's race. However, there will be another factor that could shake up the finishing order.
The Cup teams will have two different tire choices for Sunday evening's race. According to Goodyear, The option tires will be softer with the possibility of more grip but more tire wear. The prime tires will have less grip but will last much longer in race conditions.
These tires saw some race action during the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway. However, the colder temperatures led to less tire wear than expected. This should not be the case Sunday at Richmond with temperatures expected to hover around 81 degrees at the start of the race.