Twenty-six races have led to this point. The 16-driver Cup Series playoff field is now ready for the start of the Round of 16, but four drivers are already under the cutline.
Chase Briscoe (2,005 points), Harrison Burton (2,005 points), Ty Gibbs (2,004 points), and Martin Truex Jr. (2,004 points) are the four drivers in immediate danger of playoff elimination heading to Atlanta. They are in this position due to multiple factors.
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Burton left Darlington 34th in the Cup Series standings, but he moved up to 14th after NASCAR reseeded the top-16 drivers.
Burton's win at Daytona gave him five playoff points and put him ahead of both Gibbs and Truex. The two Joe Gibbs Racing drivers were much higher in the standings but they only had four playoff points each from stage wins.
Briscoe was 18th in points entering Darlington. His win locked up a spot in the 16-driver playoff field and secured five stage points. He remains under the cutline despite having the same number of playoff points as Alex Bowman.
The Hendrick Motorsports driver was more consistent during the regular season as he remained 12th in points. Though Bowman also fell short of stage wins. His playoff points came from his win on the streets of Chicago.
These five drivers are the ones in immediate danger of elimination heading to Atlanta, but several others can not feel safe as they prepare for the mini-superspeedway. Points are easy to lose during the opening round of the playoffs, which also features a road course in Watkins Glen and a grueling short-track race at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Drivers such as Ryan Blaney (2,018 points) and Denny Hamlin (2,015 points) have multiple race wins and stage wins. They still don't have much of a cushion over other drivers. A single mechanical failure or DNF due to a crash could derail their opening round.
The same goes for William Byron, who won three times in the first eight weeks of the season. He only has 22 playoff points. There is no room for mistakes or unexpected issues as he tries to return to the Championship 4.
The journey to Phoenix will only grow more difficult as NASCAR continues to eliminate drivers from contention after the Round of 16 and Round of 12. Every round of the playoffs features wild card races and numerous opportunities for teams to either rise to the occasion or falter under pressure.
At this point, the safest drivers are Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick.
Larson has 40 playoff points earned through four race wins, 10 stage wins, and finishing second in the regular-season standings. Reddick has 28 stage points earned through two race wins, three stage wins, and the regular-season championship.
Bell has 32 playoff points earned through three race wins, 10 stage wins, and finishing the regular season top 10 in the standings.