BRISTOL, Tenn. -- It was a whirlwind weekend for NASCAR Cup Series teams at Bristol Motor Speedway as they had to adapt multiple times to the considerable uncertainty surrounding tire wear.
It's a good thing they aren't allowed to gamble.
"If we had all bet our houses on it like we said we would, we'd all be homeless based on practice (Saturday)," James Small, Chase Briscoe's crew chief, said on pit road.
Before the weekend started, these teams had no idea what level of tire wear they would see during the 500-lap race. There was seemingly endless speculation throughout the industry as drivers, engineers, and crew chiefs attempted to make tire wear predictions.
Would they see 54 lead changes like the 2024 Bristol spring race due to tires that wore after 30 laps, or would one driver dominate like the 2024 Bristol playoff race as tires held up over long green flag runs?
"We certainly had kind of a two-part conversation around what it would look like for a rubber race," Cliff Daniels, crew chief of the No. 5 team, said after Kyle Larson won the Cup race.
"It wasn't a fully rubbered-in race, but certainly the tires made it. Then the conversation around what it would be like if it was kind of a chaos-type race with a lot of tire wear.
"To be honest, our learning experience from last year, when it was the kind of the chaos race, was a well-balanced car was still going to give you the best potential to manage it on either side."
Saturday's practice session, which took place on a chilly and cloudy Saturday afternoon, made teams think they would potentially see extreme tire wear like last season's spring race.
These teams and drivers cautiously approached the opening stage of Sunday's race, only to realize that the tires were not wearing as expected. The temperatures were roughly 15 degrees higher, and the sun was bathing the track in light.
This uncertainty was easy to see early in the race. Once Alex Bowman took the green flag from the pole position, the rest of the drivers in the field settled on the bottom groove. The overwhelming majority of them remained locked onto the bottom for the first 30 laps.
It wasn't until Justin Haley began making moves on the outside lane that the pace picked up. This is when Larson and other drivers began venturing up the track, looking for grip.
Once again, it was time to adapt.
Teams had to abandon their cautious tire management and go all-in on aggressiveness to gain the all-important track position. They just didn't use up all 11 sets of Goodyear tires that were available.
Photo credit: AltDriver
"I thought it was a good race from the driver's seat," Ryan Blaney said after finishing fifth. "I know maybe there wasn't a lot of passing for the lead. I think Larson led damn near the whole thing.
"I thought the tire really surprised me in a good way from yesterday."
Of course, not everyone was completely caught off guard. Some drivers and teams had some indication that the tires would not wear as quickly.
They looked at the forecast for Sunday and saw that the conditions would favor tire durability. They learned that NASCAR had put a fresh coat of PJ1 traction compound on the track after Saturday's Xfinity Series race.
These factors indicated that the track would take more rubber during a 500-lap race than it did during two 25-minute practice sessions. So, the teams had to adapt to the changing conditions.
It also helped that some drivers walked on the track both days to get a literal feel for the racing surface and how it had changed between Saturday and Sunday.
"Typically, I feel like when they spray the PJ1, it's like a dragstrip," Briscoe told AltDriver. "You walk across it, you can feel it peeling on the bottom of your shoe. It's super sticky, and especially when it's hot and guys run on it. That's why when practice was over before qualifying started, I went out there and walked.
"It didn't have any of that (stickiness) at all. You could sit there and kick your foot, and it felt like anything else. Today, I walked in, and it looked way darker. It was way blacker. As soon as my foot hit it, it like peeled up and tried to rip my shoe off."