NASCAR Cup Series teams have completed 14 races as nine drivers have celebrated wins. Only 12 races remain in the regular season, so it's time to make some predictions.
As NASCAR's top series has regularly shown over the decades, it's impossible to predict what will happen. You can enter the race weekend saying that one driver will deliver the win, only to watch them DNF due to an engine failure or some other random incident.
This uncertainty is what makes this exercise fun. Our predictions could all come true, or they could be completely off-target.
No. 1 - Kyle Busch gets a win
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"Rowdy" won three races in his first season with Richard Childress Racing and reached 63 in his career. However, he hasn't won since Gateway on June 4, 2023. The first of our predictions is that this winless streak ends before the playoffs begin.
When will Busch win? We have circled the July 20 race at Dover Motor Speedway, the track where Busch has started from the pole in the last two races. He finished fourth last season.
No. 2 - An upset winner takes the in-season tournament
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The inaugural in-season tournament will pit 32 drivers against each other in a bracket-style format. This tournament will not feature traditional seeding, however, as it will use Michigan, Mexico City, and Pocono to determine seeds 1-32. This seeding style will potentially pit the top drivers against each other early and lead to some surprising eliminations.
If a driver like William Byron knocks out Kyle Larson in an early round, it could open up opportunities for someone like Zane Smith or Justin Haley to advance. We predict this will happen multiple times before an "upset" winner takes the $1 million prize. In this case, an upset would be any driver outside of the top 15 in points.
No. 3 - AJ Allmendinger puts Kaulig Racing in the playoffs
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AJ Allmendinger has delivered for Kaulig Racing. He won the team's first Cup Series race in 2021, and then he scored its first Gen 7 win in 2023 at the Charlotte Roval. This season, Allmendinger has kept the No. 16 team in contention for a playoff spot on points alone. However, we predict that he will win before the end of the regular season.
Watkins Glen is an easy choice. After all, he has one win, five top-five finishes, and eight top-10s in 13 starts at the New York road course.
No. 4 - Chase Briscoe gets a special first crown jewel
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Chase Briscoe is an Indiana kid through and through. He has made this quite clear by explaining why he would rather win the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway than the Daytona 500.
We predict he checks off this goal this season. Briscoe and the No. 19 team have delivered speed during qualifying with three pole wins and at specific points in races this season. They just haven't yet put together a full performance.
That changes in July when Briscoe returns to his home track. He will get his first crown jewel win in front of hundreds of supporters who made the trip from Mitchell, Indiana, and he will celebrate for the first time with Joe Gibbs Racing.
No. 5 - Shane van Gisbergen gets his first oval top five
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Shane van Gisbergen's move from Supercars to NASCAR has been a learning experience. He has celebrated wins on road courses in both Xfinity and Cup, but he has faced a steep learning curve on oval tracks. This is understandable considering that stock car oval racing is a new discipline.
Van Gisbergen's best finish on an oval track is 12th at Martinsville last season. His second-best finish on an oval is 14th at Charlotte Motor Speedway this season. Our prediction is that he will surpass these finishes before the end of the regular season. We predict he will get his first top-10 finish and his first top-five before the start of the playoffs.
No. 6 - Chicago hosts a race under sunny skies
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NASCAR has made two trips to Chicago for street races. Both were affected by inclement weather. The inaugural race in 2023 started late and ended after only 75 laps due to heavy rainfall in the Windy City. Last season's race had a nearly two-hour delay due to rain, and it featured teams racing with a mix of slicks and wet-weather tires.
Our prediction is that the third trip to Chicago, the final event of the three-year deal, will take place under better conditions. The teams will enjoy a dry weekend without any delays or necessary wet weather tire changes.
No. 7 - Spire Motorsports wins a race
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Much like the No. 19 team at Joe Gibbs Racing, Spire Motorsports has showcased race-winning speed in several races. It just hasn't checked off this major goal. We predict that this will change before the playoffs begin.
The confidence is partially due to Carson Hocevar delivering multiple runner-up finishes this season. Another part is due to the fact that he had one of the fastest cars in the Coca-Cola 600 before a stunning engine failure. It's also difficult to count out Justin Haley and Michael McDowell, two drivers who have performed well at road courses and superspeedways alike.
McDowell, in particular, won the Daytona 500 in 2021, and then he won at the Indianapolis road course in 2023.
No. 8 - An engine failure in Mexico City
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For the first time in NASCAR history, the Cup Series teams will compete in an international points-paying race. They will do so at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, a road course sitting roughly 7,500 feet above sea level.
Less oxygen is available at higher elevations, but how does this affect the performance of race cars? They can lose considerable power while becoming more prone to overheating. Teams have to account for these factors as they prepare for their first race in Mexico City.
Unfortunately, something will happen to one of these Cup Series teams despite the amount of preparation. We expect to see an engine failure.
No. 9 - Mexico City delivers
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While we predict that an engine failure will disrupt one of the NASCAR Cup Series teams, we also believe that the race weekend will be a success. The ninth of our 12 predictions is that the fans, drivers, and media members will all rave about this inaugural race at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.
What will make a good race? Obviously, the drivers will have to be able to pass each other and battle for position. They will have to deliver an exciting finish that doesn't involve countless restarts and drivers just wrecking each other for position. The race needs to be more like Shane van Gisbergen's Chicago win in 2023 and less like Circuit of the Americas that same season.
According to the Jeff Gluck Good Race Poll, four road course races have scored above 90%. Two races were at Watkins Glen (2018, 2022), one race was at Sonoma (2016), and one was at the Charlotte Roval (2018).
No. 10 - Chevrolet snaps its Michigan streak
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Between 2014-17, Chevrolet teams were dominant at Michigan International Speedway. Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon swept the 2014 season, and then Kurt Busch won the first race in 2015. Toyota and Ford each posted one win at the 2-mile track before Kyle Larson won three straight races for Chip Ganassi Racing.
This triple victory at Michigan marked the last time that the Bowtie visited victory lane there in the Cup Series. Ford drivers won nine straight at Michigan before Tyler Reddick captured last season's race in a Toyota.
Our prediction is that a Chevrolet driver will snap this losing streak at the track most important to NASCAR's OEMs. If a Spire Motorsports driver gets the win, that will take care of two predictions in one weekend.
No. 11 - Ryan Preece makes the playoffs
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When Ryan Preece joined RFK Racing, he made it clear that his mission was to win races. He joined a team that could provide the best equipment of his career, and he had multiple sponsors joining him for the season.
Preece has already matched his career-best marks with five top-10 finishes and one top-five. He has the best average finish of his career (19.6) despite losing a runner-up finish at Talladega due to a spoiler-related disqualification.
Our prediction is that Preece builds upon his consistency through the first 14 races of the season, and he finally achieves a career-long goal. He competes for a championship by reaching the playoffs for the first time. This could be on points, but we predict that Preece will win his first Cup Series race during the regular season.
No. 12 - An expected winner takes Daytona
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Since Daytona International Speedway began hosting the regular-season finale, multiple surprise drivers have won the race and locked up a spot in the playoffs. This includes William Byron in 2020, Austin Dillon in 2022, and Harrison Burton last season. Chris Buescher (2023) and Ryan Blaney (2021) won the other regular-season finales, but they had previous wins in the respective seasons.
Our prediction is that the regular-season finale does not feature any surprises. A driver with a guaranteed playoff spot will win at Daytona to close out the regular season. The 16-driver field will not have any shakeups.